If you want to take Saquon Barkley at No. 1 overall this year, I won’t argue with you. He just ran for 2,005 yards, scored 15 total touchdowns, and won Offensive Player of the Year while leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl. He was dominant from start to finish and delivered exactly what you hope for when you take a running back in the first round.

But for me, he’s my number two overall pick heading into 2025.

Saquon was the engine of one of the best offenses in football last season. He carried the ball 345 times, averaged 5.8 yards per carry, and totaled over 2,000 rushing yards. He added 33 receptions for 278 yards and scored twice more through the air. He was reliable, efficient, explosive, and available.

And then came the playoffs.

Barkley turned it up another level when it mattered most. In 4 postseason games, he ran for 499 yards and 5 touchdowns. He also chipped in 43 receiving yards and two more scores. Against the Rams in the Divisional Round, he exploded for 205 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in one of the best playoff performances we’ve seen in years. Every time the Eagles needed a spark, he delivered.

So why isn’t he my number 1 overall pick?

It’s really just about regression. Not because I think Barkley is falling off, but because it’s hard to repeat a season like that. He handled well over 370 touches between the regular season and playoffs. That’s a massive workload, and history says it’s tough to sustain year over year. He’s still elite, but expecting another 2,000-yard campaign is a big ask.

The only player I’m taking over him is Jahmyr Gibbs. He plays in an offense that’s built to score nonstop, and Dan Campbell doesn’t let off the gas. Even when the game is out of reach, they keep feeding Gibbs touches. The Lions want to put up 100 every week, and Gibbs is at the center of that. He’s younger, more explosive in space, and trending up at the exact right time.

None of that is a knock on Saquon. He’s still my RB2 and a top-tier fantasy pick in every format. He plays in a great offense, he gets red zone work, and he’s shown he can carry your team through the fantasy playoffs. If you take him in the top three, you’re going to feel good about it. If he’s still there at pick two, I’m hitting draft without thinking twice.

Saquon isn’t my number one, but he’s a monster. And he’s still one of the safest, highest-upside picks you can make in 2025.