Lupo’s Locks: Week 1 NFL Fanduel DFS

New for this season, I’ll be including my Locks for each week for NFL Fanduel. I’m not an expert by any means, but I spend a good amount of time researching via articles, paid subscriptions, podcasts, cheat sheets, etc. I will be highlighting a few players I believe will be strong plays for the Sunday slate.

Here are Lupo’s Locks of the week:

Quarterback:

There’s three players I like this week, and don’t think you can go wrong with either of them.

  • *Marcus Mariota, TEN vs OAK – 7.8k
  • Derek Carr, OAK vs TEN – 7.7k

Tennessee vs Oakland has the highlight implied score on the slate. This game will be a shootout, and you can’t go wrong with Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota for their value. For an extra $100, I pay up and grab Mariota because of his rushing potential.

  • Russel Wilson, SEA vs GB – $8.0k

Russel Wilson had a rough season last year, but I think he bounces back this year. Green Bay’s secondary is suspect, and Wilson should put up solid numbers in a high scoring game.

Running Back:

I’m paying up for the studs at RB this week. Don’t get cute, lock these guys in and find value elsewhere.

  • Le’veon Bell, PIT vs CLE – 9.3k

As if you needed reason to choose Bell, the Browns gave up most point to opposing RB’s last year. I’m not worried about him sitting out training camp, as reports are that he will receive a full workload in Week 1.

  • David Johnson, ARI vs DET – 9.4k

Last season, Johnson had a whopping 39% of the combined targets and carries for the team last year. He’s a workhorse and gets it done on the ground and through the air. He is one of the safest players in DFS, and has massive upside, even at his price point.

Honorable Mention:

  • Demarco Murray, TEN vs OAK – 7.6k
  • Devonta Freeman, ATL vs CHI – 8.3k
  • Todd Gurley, LAR vs IND – 7.3k

Wide Receiver:

Wide Receiver is where you can find a ton of value.

I have two ABSOLUTE LOCKS this week.

  • Doug Baldwin, SEA vs GB – 7.5k

Baldwin has a cushy matchup vs the GB secondary, and is Wilson’s favorite target in a game with a O/U at 50+.

  • Terrelle Pryor, WSH vs PHI – 6.2k

VALUE! VALUE! VALUE! 6.2k for a WR1 on a team that loves to throw the ball, give me that all day. Pryor has the size advantage against the smaller Eagles corners. Not to mention, Pryor put up good numbers last year in CLE last year with journeymen and rookie QBs. He’s going to be a stud this year with Kirk Cousins and it starts in Week 1.

Value Pick:

  • Kendall Wright, CHI vs ATL – 5.2k

Bears lost their two most target players from 2016. Alshon Jeffrey and Cam Meredith combined for 34.7% of targets. Expect Wright to get a good volume of targets, and he has the talent to do something with them.

Honrable Mention:

  • Michael Crabtree, OAK vs TEN – 6.9k
  • Jamison Crowder, WSH vs PHI – 6.5k
  • Martavis Bryant, PIT vs CLE – 6.5k
  • Brandon Marshall, NYG vs DAL – 6.8k (Only if Beckham is out)

Tight End:

  • Zach Ertz, PHI vs WSH – 5.9k

Gronk and Kelce already played Thursday Night, so there doesn’t leave much to pay up for on Sunday. Ertz is in the higher priced tier for tight ends, and can return some good value. Ertz averaged 16.4 Fanduel PPG in the Eagles final five games last season, and has seemed to build a strong rapport with QB Carson Wentz.

Value Plays:

  • Evan Engram, NYG vs DAL – 4.9k

Rookie Tight Ends usually struggle in their first season, but Engram is not your typical TE. He’s WR that is listed as a TE. Eli seemed to trust Engram in middle of the field during preseason, especially down the seam. The Cowboys don’t defend Tight End’s well, and the Giants have struggled with their Red Zone offense. I think Engram comes away with a 5/65/1TD line, which would put him at 15 Fanduel points. Great Value for 4.9k.

  • Zach Miller, CHI vs ATL – 4.5k

Miller was having a nice season before his foot injury last year. He returns healthy to a team that (as I stated above) has 34.7% of their targets from last season up for grabs. Miller should get a handful of looks, and won’t need a TD to return value.

Don’t get cute with kickers and defense. For your kicker, chose a reliable guy from a high scoring team. For defense, look at opposing QB’s who are prone to make mistakes, as most defensive points are scored via turnovers and return touchdowns.

That’s all for Week 1. Stay tuned to The Sports Chill Instagram for Jimmy’s Fanduel lineup on Sunday morning, and hit me up on twitter with any questions at @Mark_Lupo.

Hopefully we all make some money this weekend! Good luck, and be sure to shout us out if we helped you cash!

-Mark

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