1. Matt Ryan (8,500) – This game is projected to be the biggest shootout of the weekend and Green Bay has a great rush defense so the Falcons will be forced to throw. Green Bay also has a big lack of running game right now so I REALLLLY like the pace of play in this one. I expect this game to have one of the higher play totals of the weekend with minimal run game on either side milking clock. Matty’s been great all season and GB has a very banged up secondary with multiple starters missing. Julio is due for another large meal and you know who’s feeding him.
2. Andrew Luck (7,900) – This game has the 2nd highest projected point total and Luck is coming off 4 rock solid starts finishing as QB1, QB8, QB8, QB10. Those games came with limited weapons and he is due to get one of his favorite targets, Donte Moncreif, back this week. Luck will keep on rolling at home in this one.
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick (7,300) – If you’re looking for sneaky low owned guy for tournaments you may want to consider Fitzmagic. The last time he came back from a benching, he threw 6 touchdowns against the Titans in 2014. He’s pissed off and ready to prove everybody wrong…just take a look at his post-game comments last week if you don’t believe me. CLE is a very good matchup for him as they are the 3rd most generous defense for opposing QBs. Cleveland has given up at least 2 passing touchdowns in EVERY game this season and even given up 3 TDs to Mariota, Cousins, Brady, and Tannehill.
1. Spencer Ware ($7,400) – For the past couple weeks, Spencer Ware has been on a tear if you’re not aware (lol). The Chiefs have won back to back games and seem to have realized that feeding Ware is the blueprint to their success. Charles has been moving backwards in his rehabilitation week by week and may not suit up this weekend. Ware is locked and loaded as an elite RB1 in this dream matchup as Indy is dead last in rush defense against both rushing backs and receiving backs….
2. Devontae Booker ($5,600) – Booker’s price was set before anyone knew that CJ Anderson would be out for this game (and possibly the season). Devontae steps into a workhorse role against an average SD defense after starting the season with 5.2 YPC on limited work. Denver likes to run the ball and play defense, at home especially. I really like the value of Booker at this price with his projected touches in a game that Denver is favored in. He’ll be very high owned but that okay with his projected return on investment.
3. Jacquizz Rodgers ($6,600) – Fanduel still hasn’t gotten Rodger’s price up to the tier it belongs in, so go out and grab him at this value. He’s in a very favorable spot against a bad OAK rush defense and has seen 35 and 27 touches the past two games. Much like the Chiefs, the Bucs have won two straight and look to have figured out a great blueprint. Feeding the run game to cut down on Jameis’ opportunity to turn the ball over is a solid formula for them.
4. Christine Michael ($7,800) – If Michael’s price was a little bit lower, I would love him this week. He is matching up against everybody’s favorite opposing defense, the Saints. He has been a bit bogged down by tough matchups as of late but this week should be a great opportunity to showcase the burst that Pete Carroll keeps talking about. With Russell Wilson ailing from his balky knee and a new pectoral injury, the Seahawks will likely lean on the running game a bit more than usual.
1. Brandon Marshall ($7,400) – His best friend is back under center (thank god). In his last 5 games with Fitz under center for all 4 quarters, he’s averaged 11.8 targets a game. Pair the 11.8 targets with Cleveland’s awful pass defense and you’ve got a big game coming. As I said before in the Fitzpatrick blurb, Cleveland has given up at least 2 passing touchdowns in every game this season and who else is more likely to catch them for NY?
2. Julio Jones ($9,200) – Yes, the price is high but this is one of his best opportunities yet and there are enough values at RB, QB, and TE to find the salary. See everything I wrote under Matt Ryan about game pace, the projected shootout, and GB’s beat up secondary. Julio has been on fire most of the year and I don’t think this is the game he cools off. Not at home, in that dome, while Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers exchange blows.
3. Mike Evans ($7,900) – Mike Evans is a target machine. The man is averaging about 12.5 targets per game on the season. That’s crazy high. The Bucs have dialed back Jameis’ pass attempts in the past couple weeks, but it hasn’t made Evans bat an eye. OAK has a trash secondary so look for Mike to continue the hot streak.
4. TY Hilton ($7,800) – TY has had some monster games this season. He’s done a lot of work in the slot and that matches up nicely against KC’s defense. In the second highest point total of the week, look for Indy’s biggest playmaker to make a play or two or three. He seems to LOVE that dome of his.
5. Michael Crabtree ($7,100) – Crabtree is another guy that seems to be cheaper than he performs at, week-in and week-out. Looking back at his game log, he’s been steady as can be over the entire season. He’s scored at least 10 points in every game other than that one he played against KC in a friggen monsoon a couple weeks ago. He seems to have his biggest games when the opponent has one corner way better than the other. That applies here with TB’s good lookin’ rookie Vernon Hargreaves matching up with Cooper. Great matchup, good situation for a consistent option.
1. Jimmy Graham ($6,700) – Jimmy is surging and becoming a more focal part of this offense as the team goes on. He’s facing the Saints (need I say more?) and is averaging 9 targets per game over the last four. 9 targets against the Saints seems like an obvious play for me. Don’t overlook the fact that he’s going to be hungry to prove the Saints wrong for trading him away before last season. Revenge games are areal thing.
2. CJ Fiedorowicz ($4,900) – This man is quietly coming on. He’s your typical tight end that gets drafted high and waits in the dark for a couple seasons before making an impact for his team. Averaging nearly 7 targets a game over his last four, CJ is quickly becoming Brock’s most trusted outlet. In a plus matchup against the Lions, who let everybody throw on them, you can comfortably plug him in at this really low price for flexibility to get some studs.
***My rule for kickers is to pick a guy on a team you think will win. High scoring matchups are a bonus but not necessary for a big game out of a kicker. They are hard to predict so I suggest following that rule and trusting your gut.
1. Matt Bryant ($4,800)
2. Mason Crosby ($4,600)
1. New England ($4,500) – Also a relatively hard position to predict. More than 80% of the time I just look for a cheap defense at home against a turnover prone opponent. This week I’m straying a bit from that approach because I didn’t see an obvious pick. Buffalo could struggle on offense with a banged up, or missing, Shady McCoy. Patriots have had a solid defense so far this year and their matchups with Rex Ryan rarely result in high scoring affairs